This study aimed to validate CU prediction model on mortality for patients with high risk bleeding peptic ulcers after therapeutic endoscopy.
Despite advances in management of patients with bleeding peptic ulcers, mortality is still 10%. We previously reported a prediction score for ulcer bleeding related mortality developed from a local cohort. The risk factors for mortality included patients older than 70, presence of co-morbidity, more than one listed co-morbidity, hematemesis, SBP \< 100 mmHg, in-hospital bleeding, rebleeding, and need for surgery. Study objective This study aimed to validate the prediction of mortality among patients with bleeding peptic ulcers from different Asian countries. Method Consecutive patients with bleeding peptic ulcers who presented to the study centers in Hong Kong, Japan and Taiwan were recruited after successful primary endoscopic hemostasis. The baseline demographics, ulcer characteristics, the predictive factors, 30 days mortality, rebleeding, hospital stay and need of surgery were recorded. The accuracy of prediction for adverse events including mortality and rebleeding with the prediction risk scoring system would be analysed.
Study Type
OBSERVATIONAL
Enrollment
785
Combined Endoscopy Center, Prince of Wales Hospital
Hong Kong SAR, China
Accuracy in prediction of peptic ulcer bleeding related mortality
The CU prediction score would be calculated from addition of all the risk factors scores. . The calculated predictive score collected from the whole group of patients would be analyzed using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and represented using the area under curve (AUC). An AUC of 0.5 would be interpreted as poor predictive power whereas a value of 1.0 would indicate excellent predictive power.
Time frame: 30 days
Mortality difference between high risk and low risk group
Time frame: 30 days
Need of Surgery
Time frame: 30 days
Need of Transfusion
Need of transfusion as represented by number of units transfused
Time frame: 30 days
Complication rate
Time frame: 30 days
Hospital stay
Time frame: 30 days
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