The Surprise Study

University College, London250 enrolled

Overview

This study investigates the use of the Surprise Question \[SQ\] (would you be surprised if this patient were to die in the next 12 months?) in routine practice. In particular, the study will investigate the consistency of the responses to the SQ and the relationship with the subsequent course of action decided upon.

Whilst the original use of the Surprise Question was to identify people who might be in the last year of life and benefit from palliative care, the prognostic capability of the Surprise Question has been shown to be variable. What is unclear, is the extent to which a doctor should be "surprised" before a patient is suitable for palliative care, how consistently doctors respond to this question, and how the subsequent treatment decision relates to the SQ response. The study will recruit 600 General Practitioners (GPs) from 6 participating countries (100 per country; UK, Germany, Switzerland, Italy, Belgium, the Netherlands). Each participant will asked to complete a series of 20 hypothetical patient summaries in an online task.

Study Type

OBSERVATIONAL

Enrollment

250

Conditions

Palliative Care Terminal Illness

Interventions

Online studyOTHER

20 hypothetical patient summaries

Eligibility

Sex: ALLMin age: 18 YearsHealthy volunteers:

Medical Language ↔ Plain English

Inclusion Criteria: * Registered General Practitioner in one of the six participating countries * Able to read and understand the language in which the questionnaire is presented to them Exclusion Criteria: * None

Locations (6)

University of Antwerp

Antwerp, Belgium

University of Mainz

Mainz, Germany

University of Bologna

Bologna, Italy

Radboud University Medical Centre

Nijmegen, Netherlands

Outcomes

Primary Outcomes

Probability estimate

The continuous estimate of probability of dying within the next 12 months for the SQ (0-100%).

Time frame: Participants will have up to 8 months (until the study closes) to provide an estimate for each vignette (n=20)

Secondary Outcomes

The Surprise Question

Dichotomous response to the SQ (Yes/No)

Time frame: up to 8 months (until the study closes)Participants will have up to 8 months (until the study closes) to provide a response for each vignette (n=20)

The alternative Surprise Question

Dichotomous response to the alternative SQ (Yes/No)

Time frame: up to 8 months (until the study closes)Participants will have up to 8 months (until the study closes) to provide a response for each vignette (n=20)

Treatment options

The options for the course of action selected by the participants in each vignette

Time frame: up to 8 months (until the study closes)Participants will have up to 8 months (until the study closes) to provide a response for each vignette (n=20)

Data from ClinicalTrials.gov

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