Our objective is to determine if the combination of simple ultrasound features (IOTA simple rules) and a new biomarker (HE4) together with a common tumour marker (CA 125) can accurately predict ovarian cancer in women found to have a pelvic mass on ultrasound. The investigators hypothesize that the use of two biomarkers (HE4 and CA 125) in a mathematical algorithm (Risk of Malignancy Algorithm, ROMA) can be used to predict malignancy in a pelvic mass which has indeterminate ultrasound features. This is a prospective cohort study involving women undergoing operation for a pelvic mass. 720 women scheduled to have an operation to remove a pelvic mass would be recruited from 3 hospitals (QMH, UCH and PYNEH). Pre-operatively, each woman will have an ultrasound assessment using the IOTA simple rules criteria and have blood taken for tumour markers HE4 and CA 125. In women where IOTA ultrasound rules are inconclusive, 2 strategies for prediction will be compared - calculation of risk by ROMA (Strategy A) vs referral for an expert ultrasound (Strategy B). These pre-operative risk predictions will be correlated with the final pathology found at the operations. Main outcome measures include the sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive powers for Strategy A compared to Strategy B. Sensitivity and specificity will be compared using the McNemar test. Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC) will be calculated and compared using the Delong method for the 2 strategies. The investigators expect AUC of both strategies will be similar. This would suggest that ROMA can replace expert ultrasound in the pre-operative prediction of ovarian cancer.
Study Type
OBSERVATIONAL
Enrollment
814
Pamela Youde Nethersole Eastern Hospital
Hong Kong, Hong Kong
Queen Mary Hospital
Hong Kong, Hong Kong
United Christian Hospital
Hong Kong, Hong Kong
sensitivity, specificity and predictive powers
The group of women with inconclusive IOTA assessment will undergo further assessment by both tumour markers assessment by ROMA (Strategy A) and expert ultrasound (Strategy B). The prediction of risk of malignancy (high or low) will be correlated with the final histopathology result from the surgery. The sensitivity, specificity and predictive powers for the 2 strategies will be compared.
Time frame: 3 months after last subject enrolled
Best method for predicting malignancy in pelvic mass in HK
The sensitivity, specificity and predictive powers for 4 different predicting methods - (i) IOTA simple rules followed by ROMA (if IOTA inconclusive), (ii) IOTA simple rules followed by expert ultrasound assessments (if IOTA inconclusive), (iii) ROMA, or (iv) RMI will be compared.
Time frame: 3 months after last subject enrolled
Accuracy of these 4 different prediction methods in different hospital settings
The sensitivity, specificity and predictive powers for these 4 different prediction methods for the 3 hospitals will be compared and factors influencing the accuracy will be explored.
Time frame: 3 months after last subject enrolled
Performance of IOTA simple rules followed by ROMA (if IOTA inconclusive) in different histological subtypes
Since the tumour markers assessed by ROMA may be more commonly raised in some subtypes (eg serous adenocarcinoma) compared to other subtypes (eg mucinous adenocarcinoma), it is possible that the performance of IOTA followed by ROMA may differ in different histological subtypes. The final histological subtypes will be obtained from the pathology reports from the surgery. The sensitivity and specificity of IOTA followed by ROMA will be compared amongst the different major histological subtypes.
Time frame: 3 months after last subject enrolled
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