The occurrence of seizures in epilepsy is not entirely random. Temporal patterns that organize the occurrence of seizures over weeks and months were previously unraveled using intracranial EEG System (IEEG) that monitors epileptic brain activity chronically. Seizures typically recur with patient-specific periodicity and are preceded by increases of epileptic brain activity over days. Here, the investigators developed new methods to forecast seizure likelihoods at a 24-h horizon. In this trial, participants will be provided with daily estimates about their upcoming risk of seizures. As a primary outcome, the performance of forecasts will be evaluated against the occurrence of electrographic seizures. As secondary outcome, the forecast's potential benefit for users in conveying actionable information in real-life will be assessed.
Study Type
INTERVENTIONAL
Allocation
RANDOMIZED
Purpose
SUPPORTIVE_CARE
Masking
QUADRUPLE
Enrollment
14
Participants are provided with daily risk estimates about upcoming seizure likelihood.
Participant receive uninformative control forecast
University of California, San Francisco
San Francisco, California, United States
Forecast performance
Performance of double-blinded (covert phase) IEEG-forecasts. Performance is quantified as the area-under-the sensitivity vs. time in warning curve (AUC) and double-tested statistically in a pairwise manner against shuffled chance-forecasts and participant's self-forecasts.
Time frame: At least on the first 10 seizures since enrollment. Expected within 6-12 months from enrollment.
Maintenance of forecast performance
For the cohort that progresses to the overt phase, The AUC obtained during the overt phase will be compared to their historical AUC during the covert phase and tested for a pairwise difference.
Time frame: At least 8 seizures during the overt phase, expected to last 6-12 months
Informativity
Participant-reported estimates of how informative a forecast is on a visual-analogue scale, scored from 0 to 10.
Time frame: Throughout the open-label (6-12 months) and withdrawal phase (3-6 months)
QOLIE-31
Quality Of Life In Epilepsy questionnaires with 31 items (QOLIE-31) completed at the transition from one study phase to the next. The quantification is on a scale from 0 to 100 and pairwise comparison between covert, overt and withdrawal phase.
Time frame: Upon completion of the study after 18-30 months.
Actionability
List of concrete strategies enabled by the forecasts
Time frame: End of open-label phase after 12-24 months.
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